<div><strong>Background: </strong>India stands first in the production of most of the spices. Still we are not able to exploit the full potential of these spices since these are often subjected to wide price unsteadiness in the domestic as well as international markets which results in fluctuations in production and yield too rendering an intense discuss on spices growth and instability. The present study carried out to examine the trend in growth and instability of major spices grown in India.<br />
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<strong>Methods:</strong> The growth and instability analysis was carried out at nationwide. The required data for the present study was collected for the period 1990-91 to 2018-19 which were further divided into three sub-periods. On the basis of highest area and production six major spices namely, pepper, cardamom, chilli, ginger, turmeric and coriander growing in the country was selected for the study. The growth rates were worked out by fitting the exponential growth function and instability analysis was used by generating Cuddy Della instability index.&nbsp;<br />
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<strong>Result:</strong> The analysis has revealed that most of the spices have recorded a positive and significant growth rate in all the sub-periods. Sub-period I (1990-91 to 1999-2000) emerges to be the stable period in most of the spices which also recorded a notable growth rate compared to other sub-periods. However, sub-period II (2000-01 to 2009-10) witnessed a slow pace of growth in pepper and cardamom which registered a negative growth in area, production and yield. On the other hand, the study has shown comparatively unstable behaviour in most of spices in sub-period III (2010-11 to 2018-19).</div>


<p>Growth and Instability in Significant Spices in India: An Empirical Analysis</p>


<div style="text-align: justify;">The growth rate and instability of mango production is studied for the period 1992-93 to 2013-14. For studying the growth rate, linear and compound models are fitted with and without spline. Spline model is fitted to take care of abrupt jumps in the data and evaluate the change in the trend of time series data.The entire period of study is divided into two sub-periods, 1992-93 to 2002-03 as sub period-I and 2003-04 to 2013-14 as sub-period-II as there is maximum percentage change in area, production and yield of mango in the year 2002-03. The best fitted model is selected by considering the model evaluation criteria, such as, Adj. R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The compound model without spline, compound model with spline and linear model with spline was found to be best fit forarea, production and yield respectively. The growth rate in area, production and yield is found by using the best fit model. &nbsp;The growth rate for area is found to be positive and significant but for yield it is found to be significantly negative for each sub period and for the entire period of study. For this, though the production shows positive growth rate but it is insignificant for sub-period-Iand also for the whole period. The instability in mango production is studied with the help of coefficient of variation.As coefficient of variation is affected by long term trend, it is computed after eliminating trend from the data.From study of instability, it is found that area under mango in India shows lesser instability than production and yield. Though there is increase in production of &nbsp;mango but the increase is mainly due to the positive growth in area under mango. The yield of mango is declining at a significant rate. Decomposition analysis carried out by hazel&rsquo;s decomposition technique reveals that change in mean area made a great positive contribution towards the change in mean production, whereas, change in mean yield and change in area &ndash; yield interaction both made negative contribution towards change in mean productionfrom sub-period I to II.</div>

Fitting of appropriate model to study growth rate and instability of mango production in India

<div style="text-align:justify">India is known as the land of spices. It is one of the largest producers, consumer and exporter of spices in the world. Even though the spice is a highly demanded commodity in the international market. The export fluctuation is observed for the product. This study trying to identify the reasons of fluctuation for some selected major spices export from India. For that data collected for area production and productivity of major spices mainly chilli, ginger and turmeric and analyzed its growth and variability. These three crops were selected as they covered the highest per centage of production share in the year 2021. In this study data were collected from the year 2010-11 to 2019-20 to analyze the growth and instability in production of major spices and its impact on their export. Compound annual growth rate analysis was done to see the growth in area, production and productivity of the selected spices along with the growth performance of spice export from India. The variability in area, production and productivity along with the export instability was calculated with the help of instability index. Ourstudy examined thatarea and production of spices in India was growing continuously from the year 2010-11 to 2019-20. The compound annual growth rate analysis reflected a positive growth in area under ginger (2.53 per cent) and Turmeric (1.08 per cent), while it was negative for chilli (-0.99 per cent). During the entire period chilli and ginger recorded a positive and significant growth in production and productivity of the crop. Export was found to be related with the productivity of the crop. The export variability was found to be lowest for chilli (3.98), while ginger recorded a very high instability index (33.36) for the period. With increase productivity export of chilli increases. As the quantity exported for chilli was highest among the three crops so the export value of the same was also found highest during the entire period.</div>


<p class="ql-align-justify">Growth and Instability in Production of Selected Major Spices and their Export Scenario for India: A Review</p>

<div style="text-align:justify"><strong>Background: </strong>Having a population growing at an annual average rate of 1.2 per cent and more than half of its total size depend on primary sector for their livelihood, agricultural sector occupy significant role in the economy of India. The extent of area, production and productivity of food grains and their instability therefore attracts special attention.&nbsp;The present study thus analyses the performance of agricultural sector in India in terms of trend in growth and instability of area, production and productivity of food grain during the three decades of liberalisation. The specific objectives are (i) to examine the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of food grains in India and (ii) to explain the decomposing changes in the variability of food grains production in India.&nbsp;<br /><strong>Methods:</strong> In this field-laboratory investigation during 1990-91 to 2018-19, official secondary data has been utilized. Statistical tools like Least Square Growth Rate, Coefficient of Variation of area, production, and yield etc. have been applied for analysis.<br /><strong>Result: </strong>The study highlighted that area under food grain cultivation remained almost stagnant. However, the overall food grain production registered growth rate of 2 per cent while the production instability was 15.88 per cent. &nbsp;The trend lines fitted to the production of &nbsp;foodgrains shows positive growth rate. The co-efficient of determination (R2) shows 87 percent for production and 92 percent for productivity which determines scope for further production for India. But in area it shows just 3.9 per cent. &nbsp;The result of the study shows that the production of food grains has increased with due instability during given the time period. It also calls for adopting alternate production technologies which will further improve the productivity of food grains to meet increasing demand from the growing population.</div>

<div style="text-align: justify;">Growth and Instability Analysis of India&rsquo;s Food Grain Sector in the Post Liberalisation Period</div>

<div style="text-align: justify;">The growth and instability in oilseed prices in Amreli district of Gujarat have been estimated for the period from 1995-96 to 2016-17 using various statistical methods. The instability index suggested by Cuddy and Della was employed. Commensurate with the objectives of study, time series data on prices of major oilseed crops viz grown in the district were collected and compiled. The findings emerged from the study revealed a high level of instability in case of the sesamum black and white, but it showed moderate instability in the price of castor and bunch type as well as semi spreading varieties of groundnut. The results of correlation analysis indicated integration between oilseed prices. Higher association was noticed between the prices of the two varieties of the same crop. It was also observed that price of castor is closely related with groundnut than the sesamum whereas the lowest association was observed between prices of groundnut bunch type and sesamum white. Research and policy support is needed for raising productivity in the rain-fed areas and also for insulating the crop sector from year-to-year variations in price. The study has suggested that development of assured storage facility, market integration, market price forecast, agricultural practices, farmer-friendly insurance schemes and better weather forecasting would provide a sound shield to growth and price instability in the district.</div>

<div style="text-align: justify;">Growth and Instability in Oilseed Prices &ndash; A Case of Amreli Market in Gujarat&nbsp;</div>

<p><strong>Background:</strong> Gujarat&rsquo;s dairy sector, noted for its extensive milk production and strong cooperative framework, is a pivotal component of India&rsquo;s livestock industry. This study focuses on South Gujarat, specifically the districts of Surat, Navsari, Valsad and Tapi which are major milk producers. Using secondary data from sources such as the Directorate of Animal Husbandry and district cooperative milk unions, the research analyses trends in livestock and milk production from 2000-2001 to 2022-2023 for cows and buffaloes and from 2012-2013 to 2022-2023 for goats and sheep.<br />
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<strong>Methods:</strong> Analytical methods Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the instability index were used.<br />
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<strong>Results:</strong> Analytical methods including Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the instability index reveal a robust growth trajectory in Gujarat&rsquo;s dairy sector, particularly with crossbred cows showing significant increases in both population and milk yield. Despite overall growth, South Gujarat faces higher instability in livestock and milk production compared to the broader Gujarat region. Specifically, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) data from 2000-2001 to 2022-2023 shows positive growth in most breeds, with crossbred cows exhibiting the highest growth rates. However, South Gujarat experiences greater instability, with a CDVI of 16.02 per cent in livestock population and 5.17 per cent in milk production, compared to lower instability in Gujarat as a whole (CDVI of 2.12% and&nbsp; 2.23%, respectively). The study underscores the need for targeted interventions to improve stability and sustain growth in South Gujarat&rsquo;s dairy sector. Recommendations include enhancing management practices, increasing breed productivity and implementing measures to reduce instability. Addressing these challenges is essential for optimizing livestock and milk production, reinforcing Gujarat&rsquo;s leading role in India&rsquo;s dairy industry.( In this study is the part of the Ph.D research, hear we only emphasizes on&nbsp; local cows, crossbred cows and buffaloes, making it difficult to provide detailed information on goats and sheep due to the unavailability of data.)<br />
&nbsp;</p>


<p>Growth and Instability in Livestock Population and Milk Production in South Gujarat and Gujarat</p>


<div style="text-align: justify;">The study aims to examine the growth performance of pulses in Rajasthan. The study was entirely based on secondary data collected from various publications of the state government. The trends in area, production and yield of major pulses in Rajasthan were worked out through compound growth rate, instability index and decomposition analysis for the last eighteen years from 2000-01 to 2017-18, which was further divided into two sub-period decade wise i.e period-I (2000-01 to 2008-09) and period-II (2009-10 to 2017-18). Results have shown that, pulse area in state considerably increased. Area under moong bean registered a significant growth rate of 6.66 per cent which was highest compared to other pulse crops. Growth rate for area, production and productivity of chickpea was found to be significantly positive. Chickpea and pigeon pea crops were more stable compared to other pulse crops in the state. Expansion in area was the major reason for increase in production of chickpea, moong bean and urd bean in the state. The production of chickpea increased more due to area effect and the production of pigeon pea increased because of improvement in the yield and its interaction with area.&nbsp;</div>

<div style="text-align: justify;">Growth Performance and Instability of Pulses in the State of Rajasthan</div>

<p><strong>Background:</strong> The study examined the patterns of growth and volatility in vegetable production within India. The instability observed in vegetable production has led to significant disruptions in both supply and farm earnings. This escalating volatility in agricultural production, prices and farm income has raised apprehensions. The research assesses the expansion and instability in the cultivation of specific vegetables, Brinjal (<em>Solanum melongena</em>), Cabbage (<em>Brassica oleracea</em>), Onion (<em>Allium cepa</em>), Okra (<em>Abelmoschus esculentus</em>) as well as the aggregate vegetable output from the period spanning 1994-95 to 2021-22 in India.<br />
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<strong>Methods:</strong> The findings pertaining to growth (CAGR) patterns reveal a sense of inconsistency across regions, despite heightened production and increased cultivation areas dedicated to vegetables and witnessed significant increase in growth of vegetable production in India.<br />
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<strong>Result:</strong> The analysis of instability highlights that the states of Odisha, Bihar and West Bengal exhibit relatively lower susceptibility to instability compared to Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, states with larger cultivation areas. The state-level analysis does not reflect the complete picture of problems in vegetable production and production problems under estimates affects to farm income. Need for addressing risks in farm income by devising area-specific crop insurance or other suitable mechanisms.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


<p>An Economic Analysis of Growth and Instability of Vegetable Production in Eastern India</p>


<p style="text-align: justify;">Rice is one of the most dominant crop in Assam occupying about 70 per cent of the net cultivated area. It &nbsp;accounts for about 6 per cent of the national rice area and 4 per cent of production of India. This paper makes &nbsp;an attempt to examine the growth trend, instability and factors influencing rice production in Assam over the period 1972-73 to 2014-15. Annual Compound Growth Rates of area, production and yield is calculated using log-linear function. Coefficient of Variation is employed to assess the instability of rice production in Assam. To estimate the impact of various factors on rice production in Assam, three types of models are used namely linear model, log-linear model and a log-linear model with autocorrelation corrections. In all the models, the dependent variable is rice yield and the independent variables are yearly average rainfall, yearly average temperature of the state; area of rice cultivation in hectare; area covered by HYV seeds in hectare; area covered by irrigation in hectare; fertilizer used in kg per hectare. The estimated result of log-linear model with autocorrelation corrections shows that among the various determinants influencing rice production during the period 1972 to 2014, area under rice cultivation in hectares; area covered by HYV seeds in hectare; fertilizer used in kg per hectare were found to have a positive significant impact on rice production in Assam. Temperature is found to have a negative impact on rice production.</p>


<p>An analysis of growth trend, instability and determinants of rice production in Assam</p>


<p><strong>Background:</strong> The analysis examined the growth and instability of area, production and productivity of autumn rice, winter rice and summer rice in BTAD.&nbsp;<br />
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<strong>Methods:</strong> Data were collected from the Joint Director of Economics and Statistics, BTC. The study used Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the Cuddy-Della Valle Index to assess growth and instability.&nbsp;<br />
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<strong>Result: </strong>Autumn rice showed positive growth in area, production and productivity in Period I, but area declined in Period II, despite continued gains in production and productivity. Over the full study period, area and production declined, while productivity increased due to greater use of HYV seeds, irrigation and fertilizers. Winter rice showed consistent growth in all aspects, except for a dip in area during Period II. Summer rice achieved growth in production and productivity across all periods, even as area declined, may be because of improved inputs. Overall, low instability across all rice types indicates stable growth. Expanding autumn and summer rice cultivation can help offset winter losses from flooding. Enhancing irrigation will also allow better use of fallow land during dry seasons, boosting total rice output.</p>


Growth and Instability in Significant Spices in India: An Empirical Analysis

Fitting of appropriate model to study growth rate and instability of mango production in India

Growth and Instability in Production of Selected Major Spices and their Export Scenario for India: A Review

Growth and Instability Analysis of India’s Food Grain Sector in the Post Liberalisation Period

Growth and Instability in Oilseed Prices – A Case of Amreli Market in Gujarat

Growth and Instability in Livestock Population and Milk Production in South Gujarat and Gujarat

Growth Performance and Instability of Pulses in the State of Rajasthan

An Economic Analysis of Growth and Instability of Vegetable Production in Eastern India

An analysis of growth trend, instability and determinants of rice production in Assam

Growth and Instability of Area, Production and Productivity of Rice in Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD)