Silk farming, known as sericulture, has a rich historical background in India. This practice involves raising silkworms to produce silk. India holds a prominent position as one of the leading global silk producers, ranking second worldwide, following China (Annual Report 2022-23, Ministry of Textiles, GoI). India is highly regarded for its production of all five varieties of silk, namely mulberry silk, tropical and oak tasar silk, eri silk and muga silk, as reported in the Statistical Year Book India/Sericulture by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation. Among these, mulberry silk is the most commonly produced variety. Sericulture is an important agricultural and industrial activity in the country. In India, non-mulberry silks, including Tasar, Eri and Muga, are collectively referred to as vanya silk or wild silks of the country (Ahmed et al., 2015). Vanya silk is commonly found in distant areas, high elevations and the deep interiors of forests in Burma, China, India, Korea and certain regions of equatorial Africa and Southeast Asia. According to entomologists in the field of insects, there exist around five hundred distinct varieties of wild silk moths that produce silk cocoons. However, only a selective few possess significant commercial worth (Silk Mark Organization of India, Ministry of Textiles, GoI). Among the vanya silks, India stands as the sole country that commercially produces all the three types of commercially viable vanya silks, in addition to the well-known mulberry silk. One of these exclusive vanya silks is Muga silk, also known as the golden silk of Assam, which is uniquely crafted in India. The vanya silks exquisitely showcase the rich craftsmanship, culture and folklore of India’s northeastern and tribal regions in central and eastern parts of the country. Vanya silks, including Tasar, Eri and Muga, are renowned for their distinctive appearance and texture, which are attributed to the wild silkworms that consume leaves from various trees in the country’s forests. These silkworms feed on Oak (Quercus spp.), Castor (Ricinus communis), Som (Persea bombycina Kost.), Soalu (Litsea monopetela Roxb.), Asan (Terminalia tomentosa) and Arjuna (Terminalia arjuna) trees. The silk produced by these silkworms is then expertly crafted by traditional artisans into a diverse range of fabrics, featuring intricate and poetic designs. Tasar silk, a popular variety among vanya silks, is particularly significant, with India being the second-largest producer of tropical tasar silk. The tasar silkworm (Antheraea mylitta) feeds on the leaves of Asan (Terminalia tomentosa), Arjun (Terminalia arjuna) and Sal (Shorea robusta) trees as its primary host plants. Eri silk, also known as errandi silk, is produced by the silkworm (Philosamia ricini), which feeds on castor (Ricinus communis) and tapioca (Manihot esculenta) leaves. This silk is finer and has thermal properties similar to wool. Muga silk, also known as golden silk, is a unique product that is exclusively produced in India by the muga silkworm (Antheraea assama). This silkworm feeds on Som (Persea bombycina) and Soalu (Litsea monopetela) leaves, resulting in a silk that is highly valued for its golden hue and natural shine. India holds a monopoly over the production of muga silk.
       
Sericulture is an agricultural and forest-based cottage industry that holds the potential to generate significant and profitable employment opportunities in the rural forest areas of India. It is a labor-intensive activity that involves various stages such as cultivating host plants, raising silkworms, producing silkworm seeds and harvesting commercially viable cocoons for reeling creating income-generating avenues for farmers and artisans. As a result, the industry can be divided into two distinct phases: sericulture proper, which encompasses the cultivation and rearing processes and the raw silk industry, which focuses on the production of silk threads from the harvested cocoons . In India, approximately 150,000 tribal individuals are involved in sericulture practices, which are prevalent in the states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, as reported in the study by (Shetty et al., 2007). For, every kilogram of raw silk produced, employment for up to 11 people can be generated through sericulture activities (Ramalaxmi, 2007). India is the world’s second-largest producer of raw silk (FAOSTAT, 2021). The leading silk-producing states in India are Karnataka andhra Pradesh, Assam, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu, which contribute significantly to the country’s silk production. Specifically, Karnataka produces 33% andhra Pradesh produces 25%, Assam produces 16%, Jharkhand produces 7% and Tamil Nadu produces 5% of India’s total silk output. As depicted in Fig 1, mulberry silk accounts for a significant 73.97% of India’s total raw silk production of 34,903 metric tons, while vanya silk contributes 26.03% to the country’s overall production.


       
The farmers in India are practicing vanya silk cultures for their livelihood. (Ahmed et al., 2015). The “Indian State of Forest Report (ISFR) 2021” indicates that the country’s total forest cover spans 7,13,789 km², which is equivalent to 21.71% of the country’s total geographic area. These forests play a vital role in preserving biodiversity and the environment globally, as well as providing essential raw materials such as silk, timber, resin and medicinal plants. The abundant bio-resources present in India’s forests offer significant potential for vanya silk production and the exploration of economic opportunities that can enhance rural livelihoods and contribute to poverty alleviation, which is a critical concern for developing countries like India. The majority of the tribal population in the states of India having a higher forest cover are involved in the cultivation and rearing of different vanya silks. The tribal populations of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha andhra Pradesh and West Bengal are involved in the cultivation of tasar silk with Jharkhand being the highest producer. Oak tasar is cultivated in the remote hilly villages in the sub Himalayan belts of Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur etc. where the forests are rich in Quercus sp., the oak tasar food plants. The other two members of the vanya silk family namely eri silk and muga silk are predominantly cultivated in the northeast Indian states with Assam having a monopoly in Muga cultivation. Considering these factors, the Government of India has issued a notification under the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980 to promote the cultivation of vanya silk by supporting tribal and non-tribal communities living in and around forests, who rely on these forests for their livelihood. This study aims to analyze the production, import and export trends of raw silk in India and explore the potential of the silk industry as a valuable source of additional income for people residing near forests.

Data description
 
In this study, time series data on raw silk production, import and export in India for the period spanning 1951-2021 were obtained from the annual reports of the Central Silk Board, Ministry of Textiles, Government of India and the FAOSTAT website. The collected data were analyzed using various statistical tools, including compound growth rate, coefficient of variation and instability index.
 
Statistical analysis
 
Trend analysis
 
The compound growth rates for production of raw silk in India for the period 1951-2021 were computed by using the equation:

InY_t = β₁ + β₂t + μ_t

Where
Y_t : Production.
β_i : Regression coefficients.
μ_t : Error term.
       
For the purpose of this study, a semi-log growth rate model was constructed instead of a linear trend model, as the study is focused on both the absolute and relative changes in the parameters of interest. The most crucial parameter in this equation is the regression coefficient, which quantifies the proportional alteration in Y for a one-unit adjustment in the value of the regressor, t. The Compound Growth Rate (CGR) is then computed by the following equation:

CGR = (Antilog b_2-1) × 100

 
The regression coefficient’s sign and statistical significance determine the growth pattern. If it is positive and statistically significant, there is an acceleration in growth, whereas a negative and statistically significant coefficient indicates deceleration in growth. Conversely, a statistically insignificant coefficient suggests stagnation in the growth process.
 
Instability analysis
 
Market price fluctuation and seasonal component analysis provide policymakers and farmers with opportunities for investment and policy-making. Commodity price fluctuations have traditionally been the primary concern for producers as well as consumers as to they have a direct effect on both the stakeholders decision-making and planning processes (Sundaramoorthy et al., 2014). Fluctuations in commodity prices have an impact on stakeholders’ profitability as well as their capacity to predict and prepare for the future. Therefore, it is essential to measure price instability. In literature there are several available methods to measure price instability. In the present study Cuddy Della Valle Index (Cuddy and Della Valle, 1978) has been used to measure instability in the year wise (1961-2021) import and export prices of silk. Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) is an adjustment of the coefficient of variation by adjusting for the trend that is frequently observed in economic time series data. This metric has been found superior in comparison to scale-dependent metrics like standard deviation. The index is computed using the following equation

 
Where,
CV = Coefficient of variation.
 

X = 1 - R²

 
R² = Adjusted coefficient of determination.
       
The CDVI values can be interpreted as follows: Low instability corresponds to values between 0 and 15, medium instability falls within the range of 15 to 30 and high instability is indicated by values greater than 30 (Sihmar, 2014).

Silk production
 
India has witnessed a substantial increase in silk production over the past several decades. The silk is derived from various silkworm species, with five major types of commercial significance, namely mulberry, tropical tasar, temperate/oak tasar, muga and eri silk. The raw silk is produced by rearing the different species of silkworm. The silkworms are holometabolous insects showing a complete metamorphosis. The larvae of the silkworms are fed on the leaves of the different host plants till the fifth instar. Following this the larvae start entering the pupal stage, at this stage the silkworm starts to spins cocoons around themselves. The cocoons are then treated with hot air, steam, or boiling water in a process called stifling to kill the pupae inside the cocoon and thereby preventing the emergence of the moth and is then chemically treated to soften the silk threads. The silk threads are then reeled on a wooden spindle either manually or mechanically to generate uniform strands of raw silk.
 
Trend in mulberry raw silk production
 
Mulberry Silk is derived from the Bombyx mori silkworm, which feeds on the leaves of Morus tree species, including Morus indica, M. alba, M. multicaulis and M. bombycis. Although China is the origin of this silk, there are 150 identified Morus species, with 68 being particularly significant due to their importance in silkworm rearing, medicinal benefits and fruit sweetness. (Rao et al., 2013). Mulberry Silkworms exclusively consume the leaves of mulberry trees, especially Morus alba, a species that is indigenous to China and India (Altman and Farrell, 2022).

Mulberry sericulture is predominantly practiced in Karnataka (47%) andhra Pradesh (35%), Tamil Nadu (8%), West Bengal (4%) and Maharashtra (2%), collectively contributing to 96% of the country’s total mulberry raw silk production (Fig 2(a). Fig 2 (b) illustrates the trend in mulberry silk production in India from 1956 to 2021. The coefficient of the trend variable calculated for mulberry silk production in the growth model reveals a compound growth rate of 5.54% for India during the period 1951-2021. This suggests an accelerated growth in mulberry silk production over the study duration. However, to address the widening disparity between local production and imports, the current growth rate of raw mulberry silk production in India may be insufficient.


 
Trend in tasar raw silk production
 
Tasar silkworm holds great significance for rural tribal communities, as their livelihood relies on the collection and sale of naturally occurring tasar cocoons in forests (Nayak, 2000; Hansda et al., 2008; Ojha et al., 2009). Tasar silk can be categorized into two types: tropical tasar, which is produced from the Antheraea mylitta silkworm and feeds on Shorea robusta, Terminalia tomentosa and T. arjuna and oak/temperate tasar, which is produced from Antheraea proylei, Antheraea frithi, Antheraea compta, Antheraea pernyi and Antheraea yamamai. Antheraea proylei feeds on Quercus incana, Q. serrata, Q. himalayana, Q. leucotricophora, Q. semecarpifolia and Q. grifithi, while Antheraea frithi, Antheraea compta and Antheraea pernyi feed on Q. dealdata. Antheraea yamamai, on the other hand, feeds on Q. acutissima. Notably, the origin of Tasar silk is attributed to India, except for Antheraea pernyi (China) and Antheraea yamamai (Japan).
       
The major tropical tasar silk producing states of India are Jharkhand (81%) and Chhattisgarh (11%) which collectively produced 92% of total tasar silk of India [Fig 3 (a)]. Oak tasar is usually used for furnishing, sarees and dress materials. Tasar silk is perfect for making traditional outfits like the salwar-kurta or jackets. Popular fabrics made from tasar silks include Bomkai, Paithani and Katki. Fig 3 (b) represents the trend in Tasar silk production in India during 1956 to 2021. The compound growth rate of Tasar silk production was 3.39, which indicates a slightly accelerated growth in Tasar silk production over the study period.


 
Trend in muga raw silk production
 
The origin of muga silkworm (Antheraea assama) is in India. This silkworm feeds on Litsea polyantha, L. citrate and Machilus bombycina. The major Muga silk producing states of India are Assam (83%) and Meghalaya (16%) which collectively produced 99% of total muga silk of India (Fig 4 a). Muga silk, one of the most expensive types of silk, is deeply ingrained in the Assamese people’s cultural traditions.  The traditional muga silk products includes Sualkuchi sarees and mekhla-chaddars. Fashion designers have discovered innovative opportunities when using muga silk to create new products and designs such as using muga yarn in place of zari in sarees as the silk has a natural golden lustre and does not require dyeing. Fig 4(b) represents the trend in Muga silk production in India during 1956 to 2021. The compound growth rate of muga silk production was 1.82, which was smaller than other raw silk production indicated a slow growth in muga silk production over the years as compared to other silks. The action should be taken to encourage the production of raw muga silk as it is the most expensive silk and its export will boost the nation’s economy.


 
Trend in eri raw silk production
 
Eri silk is often referred to as non-violent silk due to the fact that the pupa is allowed to develop and emerge as a moth before the silk is spun, rather than being reeled. The origin of Eri silkworm (Philosamia ricini) is in India. This silkworm fed on Ricinus communis, Manihot utilisma and Evodia fragrance. The major eri silk producing states of India are Assam (75%), Meghalaya (16%) and Nagaland (4%) which collectively produced 95% of total Eri silk of India (Fig 5 (a)).  Fig 5(b) represents the trend in Eri silk production in India during 1956 to 2021. The compound growth rate of eri silk production was 6.5, which is highest among all silk indicated a significant growth in eri silk production over the years.


 
Import and export
 
The FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org) website was used to gather the 60 years’ worth of data (1961 to 2021) pertaining to the import and export of silk in India. The visual representation (Fig 6 and 7) demonstrated annual variations in silk imports and exports. Summary statistics of import and export data in respect to both quantity and value were computed to get more insight of data (Table 1). A significant amount of variation was found in the dataset. The highest and lowest amounts of import and export, respectively, were 9258 tons and 313 tons and 3 tons and 0 tons, respectively. Similar patterns were observed in import and export price of silk. The highest prices for import and export were 233616 and 4453 United States dollar (1000 USD) and the lowest prices import were 437 USD respectively.






       
India’s import of silk was at its lowest point between 1964 and 1974. The upward trend in imports of silk started in 1992. Silk imports peaked between 1999-2005 and 2007-2009. The handloom sector experienced growth in 1999-2000 as a result of the New Economic policy’s deployment (Soundarapandian, 2002). The decade 1981-1990 had the lowest silk exports as well. Indian silk exports have been on the rise since 1992. The curve dipped downward from 2015 to 2020. The Covid-19 outbreak in India in 2020 hindered silk import and export.  
 
CDVI index
 
The commonly used instability measures like coefficient of variation (CV) do not accommodate the trend present in the data while CDVI adjusts the trend. The export and import price (value) of silk followed a quadratic trend. The Mann-Kendall pattern test was used to determine whether a trend exists in the time series of data. The results confirmed the presence of a trend in the export and import price (value) of silk (p-value≤0.05). So CDVI was used in the study to measure the instability. Table 2 gave a detailed information of instability analysis. It has been found that the CDVI values for the export and import prices of silk were 135.68 and 48.22, respectively. It suggests that there was a significant fluctuation in prices for both silk imports and exports.


 
Sericulture and rural livelihood
 
Sericulture is a farm-based, labour intensive industry that is suitable for people who live near the vicinity of the forests. Various socioeconomic research has demonstrated that compared to agricultural crops, sericulture has a higher benefit-cost ratio. Eri silk production requires minimal capital investment, making it an attractive industry with significant employment potential that has garnered the attention of many planners and policymakers in developing countries like India. This potential has led to the recognition of the industry as a highly suitable avenue for socio-economic development. Sericulture has the potential to significantly alleviate rural poverty and curb the trend of rural-to-urban migration, as it offers employment opportunities and income generation for rural communities. Dewangan (2013) investigated that how sericulture provides opportunities for tribal livelihood. He also gave recommendations for enhancing sericulture’s long-term feasibility. Sericulture not only contributes to reducing rural poverty but also plays a crucial role in the efficient utilization of natural resources for socio-economic advancement through livelihood, employment and income generation (Malik et al., 2008). The impact of sericulture on rural livelihood is manifold. Income from sericulture helps to supplement agricultural earnings and diversify rural economies. Sericulture creates employment opportunities at different stages of the silk production process. Farmers and their families are involved in rearing silkworms and maintaining mulberry plantations. Additionally, skilled workers are employed in silk processing units, where cocoons are harvested, silk threads are extracted and weaving takes place. Sericulture supports both direct and indirect employment, benefiting local communities. Thus, sericulture is a potential sector to boost the financial well-being of farmers and generate foreign revenue (Thapa and Shrestha, 1999). Hajare et al. (2008) concluded through a study done in Maharashtra that soyabean-wheat, soyabean-gram and cotton-pigeon pea generate 66, 65 and 65 man-days, respectively, whereas mulberry sericulture generates 170 man-days. Sericulture is often associated with women’s empowerment as it offers opportunities for women to participate in income-generating activities. Women are actively involved in sericulture activities, such as cocoon sorting, silk reeling and weaving. The income earned through sericulture allows women to contribute to household finances and gain financial independence. It also provides them with a platform to enhance their skills and improve their socio-economic status. Yadav and Jadhav (2017) proposed strategies to enhance the involvement of rural women in sericulture and the silk industry, highlighting their current societal standing and the importance of empowering them. In India, sericulture has deep-rooted socio-cultural and traditional connections and exerts a substantial influence on rural economies. Conse-quently, indigenous communities in tropical forests engage in sericulture alongside agriculture to augment their livelihoods (Thangavelu, 2002; Mahapatra, 2009). Sericulture offers opportunities for entrepreneurship and value addition. Farmers can establish their own silk production units or engage in activities such as silk dyeing, printing and garment manufacturing. By adding value to silk products, rural entrepreneurs can increase their profits and create a niche in the market. Value addition also leads to the creation of additional job opportunities within the rural economy.
 
SWOT analysis of Indian sericulture
 
SWOT analysis is a strategic tool used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of a specific entity, such as a business, organization, project, or individual. This approach aids in identifying both internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (opportunities and threats) that can impact the entity’s performance and decision-making. Conducting a SWOT analysis involves identifying and analyzing these four components in a systematic manner. It helps in gaining insights into the entity’s internal capabilities, identifying areas for improvement, understanding market dynamics and assessing the external risks and opportunities. Through assessing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, entities can formulate strategies to leverage their strengths, rectify weaknesses, seize opportunities and counter threats. SWOT analysis offers a holistic perspective on the entity’s standing, facilitating informed decision-making, strategy development, goal setting and adaptation to external environmental changes. The SWOT analysis of Indian Sericulture is illustrated as follows:
 
Strengths
 
(i)  Climatic conditions that support the survival of silkworms.
(ii) India is one of the world’s mega biodiversity countries and is home to numerous silkworms. In addition to this mulberry, tasar, muga and eri host plants have extensive genetic resources dispersed across numerous geographical locations.
(iii)  Availability of labors as silk industry is labor intensive.
(iv)  Readily adoptable technology and provides a robust domestic demand-pull.
(v) Smaller investment, reduced gestation period and significant returns.
 
Weakness
 
(i)  Inadequate connectivity between many stakeholders, inadequate market accessibility.
(ii) Gaps in the support for extensions and technology transfer.
Opportunities
(i)  Reduction of migration to metropolitan regions and creation of jobs in rural areas.
(ii) Exports of clothing are steadily rising, creating a large number of job opportunities.
Threats
(i)  Insufficient knowledge in the home market to adapt to the environment driven by demand.
(ii)  The silk industry’s incapacity to adjust and change in response to the shifting demands for quality in both home and international markets.
(iii) Biodiversity and ecological balance are at risk as a result of deforestation and habitat destruction.

Sericulture has a positive impact as a sustainable source of livelihood in India. It provides economic empowerment, promotes biodiversity conservation, ensures environmental sustainability, fosters skill development and entrepreneurship and contributes to the preservation of social and cultural heritage. By embracing sericulture, communities can achieve a balance between economic development and the conservation of natural resources, making it a viable and sustainable livelihood option for the future. In this paper an attempt has been made to analyze the importance and utility as a source of sustainable livelihood to the people of the country as the subcontinent of India is fortunate to have all the five commercially viable varieties of silk in almost all parts of the country. Thus, sericulture offers a great way of uplifting the economic status of the tribal people dwelling in the forests of India. In this paper the major states producing different silks have been identified and the trend in production of different silks have also been computed from time series data using compound growth rate. The year wise distribution in the import and export of silk in both quantity and price have also been computed in which the different time periods have been identified with variations in import and export. The instability in the data was computed using CDVI index. It was found that there was a significant fluctuation in prices for both silk imports and exports. A SWOT analysis has been conducted for the Indian sericulture sector, which has identified the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats associated with sericulture as a business in India. Given its potential impact as a sustainable source of livelihood, particularly in the tropical forests of India, it is crucial to raise awareness among forest dwellers about the existing opportunities to enhance their income and improve their livelihood. By doing so, they can capitalize on the strengths and opportunities of sericulture, address its weaknesses and mitigate any threats to their success and growth. This approach can help promote socio-economic development and poverty reduction in rural areas, while also preserving the natural resources and biodiversity of the forests.

The authors are thankful to the ICAR-IASRI for providing facilities for carrying out the present research and the anonymous reviewers for their constructing insights in uplifting the quality of the study.
 
Disclaimers
 
The views and conclusions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their affiliated institutions. While the authors have taken due care to ensure the accuracy and comple-teness of the information presented, they do not accept any responsibility or liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this content.
 
Data availability statement
 
The datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the FAOStat Website [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home].

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest with respect to the publication of this article. No external funding or sponsorship influenced the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.