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Current IssueEditorial BoardOnline First ArticlesArchive

Research Article

volume 34 issue 2 (june 2019) : 124-129,   Doi: 10.18805/BKAP167

Introduction to Technology Forecasting and Assessment methods

R
Ramasubramanian V.
M
Mir Asif Iquebal
M
Mrinmoy Ray
S
Sarika
R
R. S .Tomar
1ICAR-IASRI, New Delhi

  • Submitted04-07-2019|

  • Accepted08-08-2019|

  • First Online 12-10-2019|

  • doi 10.18805/BKAP167

Cite article:- V. Ramasubramanian, Iquebal Asif Mir, Ray Mrinmoy, Sarika, .Tomar S R. (2019). Introduction to Technology Forecasting and Assessment methods. Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika. 34(2): 124-129. doi: 10.18805/BKAP167.

ABSTRACT

A technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques. Owing to its importance, this article discusses Technology Forecasting (TF) starting from its various definitions, necessity, a short review on the existing work, more particularly in the field of agriculture. Thereafter, it proceeds to explain the different types of classifications under which the various Technology Forecasting methods can be categorised. It also gives a brief account on various technology assessment methods available in the literature.

KEYWORDS

REFERENCES

  1. Armstrong, J.S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) Edited, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  2. Garg, K.C., Kumar, S., Bhatia, V.K., Ramasubramanian,    V., Kumar, A. and Kumari, J. (2011). Plant genetics and breeding research: Scientometric profile of selected countries with special reference to India, Annals of Library and Information studies, 58(2), 182-197.
  3. Jeeva, C., Ramasubramanian    V., Kumar, A., Bhatia, V.K., Geethalakshmi, V. and Premi, S.K. (2013). Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors for the post harvest sector of Indian Fisheries, Fishery Technology, 50 (1), 87-91 
  4. Martino, J.P. (1993). Technological forecasting for decision making, Second edition, McGraw Hill.
  5. NRC (2010). Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies Reports I & II by Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies    and National Research Council (2010). http://www.sevenhorizons.org/docs/Persistent Forecast%20 Disruptive Technol-ogies.pdf; Was available for access on 26th July, 2017.
  6. Porter, A.L., Cunningham, S.W., Banks, J. and Roper, A.T. (2011), Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons.
  7. Ramasubramanian V., Ananthan, P.S., Krishnan, M. and Vinay, A. (2017). Technology forecasting in fisheries sector: Cross impact analysis and substitution modeling , Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, accepted for publication, in print.
  8. Ramasubramanian, V., Kumar, A., Bishop, P., Ramasundaram, P. and Jeeva, C. J. (2015). Applications of quantitative techniques in technology forecasting: Some case studies, In: Statistics in Forestry: Methods and Applications, Ed. Chandra, G., Nautiyal, R., Chandra, H., 
  9. Roychoudhury, N. and Mohammad, N., Published by Tropical Forest Research Institute (under Indian Council of Forest Research and Education), Jabalpur, India (with authorized reprint of the edition published by Bonfring, Coimbatore), pp 115-124.
  10. Ramasubramanian, V., Kumar, A., Prabhu, K.V., Bhatia, V.K. and Ramasundaram, P. (2014). Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors in agriculture from plant breeding and genetics domain perspective: A review, Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 84 (3): 311-316.
  11. Rao, D.R., Kiresur, V.K. and Sastry, R. Kalpana (2000). Technological Forecasting of Future Oilseeds Scenario in India, ICAR- AP Cess Fund project report, NAARM, Hyderabad.
  12. Ray, M., Rai, A., Singh, K.N., Ramasubramanian, V. and Kumar, A. (2017). Technology forecasting using time series intervention based trend impact analysis for wheat yield scenario in India, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118: 128-133.
  13.  
  14. Rohatgi, P.K., Rohatgi, Kalpana and Bowander, B. (1979). Technological Forecasting, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi. 
  15. Sai, L. P. (2005). Technology Management, IIT, Chennai, http://nptel.ac.in/courses/IIT- MADRAS/Management_Science_II/Pdf/5_1.pdf; Was available for access on 26th July, 2017.
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    Research Article

    volume 34 issue 2 (june 2019) : 124-129,   Doi: 10.18805/BKAP167

    Introduction to Technology Forecasting and Assessment methods

    R
    Ramasubramanian V.
    M
    Mir Asif Iquebal
    M
    Mrinmoy Ray
    S
    Sarika
    R
    R. S .Tomar
    1ICAR-IASRI, New Delhi

    • Submitted04-07-2019|

    • Accepted08-08-2019|

    • First Online 12-10-2019|

    • doi 10.18805/BKAP167

    Cite article:- V. Ramasubramanian, Iquebal Asif Mir, Ray Mrinmoy, Sarika, .Tomar S R. (2019). Introduction to Technology Forecasting and Assessment methods. Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika. 34(2): 124-129. doi: 10.18805/BKAP167.

    ABSTRACT

    A technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques. Owing to its importance, this article discusses Technology Forecasting (TF) starting from its various definitions, necessity, a short review on the existing work, more particularly in the field of agriculture. Thereafter, it proceeds to explain the different types of classifications under which the various Technology Forecasting methods can be categorised. It also gives a brief account on various technology assessment methods available in the literature.

    KEYWORDS

    REFERENCES

    1. Armstrong, J.S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) Edited, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    2. Garg, K.C., Kumar, S., Bhatia, V.K., Ramasubramanian,    V., Kumar, A. and Kumari, J. (2011). Plant genetics and breeding research: Scientometric profile of selected countries with special reference to India, Annals of Library and Information studies, 58(2), 182-197.
    3. Jeeva, C., Ramasubramanian    V., Kumar, A., Bhatia, V.K., Geethalakshmi, V. and Premi, S.K. (2013). Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors for the post harvest sector of Indian Fisheries, Fishery Technology, 50 (1), 87-91 
    4. Martino, J.P. (1993). Technological forecasting for decision making, Second edition, McGraw Hill.
    5. NRC (2010). Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies Reports I & II by Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies    and National Research Council (2010). http://www.sevenhorizons.org/docs/Persistent Forecast%20 Disruptive Technol-ogies.pdf; Was available for access on 26th July, 2017.
    6. Porter, A.L., Cunningham, S.W., Banks, J. and Roper, A.T. (2011), Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons.
    7. Ramasubramanian V., Ananthan, P.S., Krishnan, M. and Vinay, A. (2017). Technology forecasting in fisheries sector: Cross impact analysis and substitution modeling , Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, accepted for publication, in print.
    8. Ramasubramanian, V., Kumar, A., Bishop, P., Ramasundaram, P. and Jeeva, C. J. (2015). Applications of quantitative techniques in technology forecasting: Some case studies, In: Statistics in Forestry: Methods and Applications, Ed. Chandra, G., Nautiyal, R., Chandra, H., 
    9. Roychoudhury, N. and Mohammad, N., Published by Tropical Forest Research Institute (under Indian Council of Forest Research and Education), Jabalpur, India (with authorized reprint of the edition published by Bonfring, Coimbatore), pp 115-124.
    10. Ramasubramanian, V., Kumar, A., Prabhu, K.V., Bhatia, V.K. and Ramasundaram, P. (2014). Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors in agriculture from plant breeding and genetics domain perspective: A review, Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 84 (3): 311-316.
    11. Rao, D.R., Kiresur, V.K. and Sastry, R. Kalpana (2000). Technological Forecasting of Future Oilseeds Scenario in India, ICAR- AP Cess Fund project report, NAARM, Hyderabad.
    12. Ray, M., Rai, A., Singh, K.N., Ramasubramanian, V. and Kumar, A. (2017). Technology forecasting using time series intervention based trend impact analysis for wheat yield scenario in India, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118: 128-133.
    13.  
    14. Rohatgi, P.K., Rohatgi, Kalpana and Bowander, B. (1979). Technological Forecasting, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi. 
    15. Sai, L. P. (2005). Technology Management, IIT, Chennai, http://nptel.ac.in/courses/IIT- MADRAS/Management_Science_II/Pdf/5_1.pdf; Was available for access on 26th July, 2017.
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