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Current IssueEditorial BoardOnline First ArticlesArchive

Research Article

volume 34 issue 2 (june 2019) : 83-91,   Doi: 10.18805/BKAP161

Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana

M
Mohit Nain
B
B.K. Hooda
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, CCS Haryana Agriculture University, Hisar-125 004, India.

  • Submitted05-03-2019|

  • Accepted17-04-2019|

  • First Online 12-10-2019|

  • doi 10.18805/BKAP161

Cite article:- Nain Mohit, Hooda B.K. (2019). Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana. Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika. 34(2): 83-91. doi: 10.18805/BKAP161.

ABSTRACT

Study on rainfall pattern of a region over a number of years is very useful for crop planning and irrigations scheduling. The present study deals with the probability and trend analysis of monthly rainfall in selected rain gauge stations scattered over the entire state of Haryana.  Probabilities for drought, normal and abnormal events for monthly rainfall have been worked out using monthly rainfall data for 42 years (1970-2011), covering 27 rain gauge stations in the state of Haryana. Analysis indicated that drought months are more probable than normal months while normal months are more probable than abnormal months.  The monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change in rainfall over time have been examined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, the significant decrease in annual rainfall was noticed at Ballabgarh and Thanesar, While in monsoon rainfall, a significant decrease was noticed at Thanesar and Narnaul. But Sirsa is the only district which shows a significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. In probability analysis the highest per cent of normal, draughts and abnormal months was observed for Ambala, Hassanpur and Dujana respectively.

REFERENCES

  1. Hooda B.K. (2006) Probability analysis of monthly rainfall for agriculture planning at Hisar. Indian Jour Soil Cons. 34(1): 12-14.
  2. Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin London. UK.
  3. Mann, H.B. (1945) Non-parametric test against trend. Econometric. 13:245–259.
  4. Parsad, S., Sinha, A.K. and Kumar, M. (2012) Probability analysis of monthly and seasonal rainfall for Budaun district of Uttar Pradesh. Environment & Ecology. 30(1): 11-14.
  5. Pradeep, C.M., Yasmin and Bhakar, S.R. (2011) Probability analysis of monthly and seasonal rainfall at Solapur, Maharashtra. Internat Jour Agric Engg. 4(2): 160-164.
  6. Ramachandran, G. and Banerjee, A.K. (1983) The sub-    divisional rainfall distribution across the western ghats during the southwest- monsoon season. Mausum. 34(2): 179-184.
  7. Resource Atlas of Haryana, (2004) The state natural resource data management system (NRDMS) centre of the Haryana state council of science and technology Haryana, Chandigarh.
  8. Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Jour Amer Stat Assoc. 63: 1379–1389.
  9. Sharma, H.C., Chauhan, H.S. and Ram, S. (1979) Probability analysis of rainfall for crop planning. Agricultural Engg. 16(3): 87-94.
  10. Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 55(4): 484-496.
  11. Sahu, R.K. and Khare, D. (2015) Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall trend for 30 districts of a coastal state (Odisha) of India. International Journal of Geology, Earth & Environmental Sciences. 5(1): 40-53.
  12. Singh, B. (2016) Variability and trend analysis of rainfall data of Jhalawar district of Rajasthan, India. Journal of Applied and Natural Science. 8(1):116-121
  13. Kumar Neeraj, Panchal C. C., Chandrawanshi S. K. and Thanki J. D. (2016) Analysis of rainfall by using Mann-kendall trend, Sen’s slope and variability at five districts of south Gujarat,India. Mausam, 68(2): 205-22. 
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    Research Article

    volume 34 issue 2 (june 2019) : 83-91,   Doi: 10.18805/BKAP161

    Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana

    M
    Mohit Nain
    B
    B.K. Hooda
    1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, CCS Haryana Agriculture University, Hisar-125 004, India.

    • Submitted05-03-2019|

    • Accepted17-04-2019|

    • First Online 12-10-2019|

    • doi 10.18805/BKAP161

    Cite article:- Nain Mohit, Hooda B.K. (2019). Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana. Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika. 34(2): 83-91. doi: 10.18805/BKAP161.

    ABSTRACT

    Study on rainfall pattern of a region over a number of years is very useful for crop planning and irrigations scheduling. The present study deals with the probability and trend analysis of monthly rainfall in selected rain gauge stations scattered over the entire state of Haryana.  Probabilities for drought, normal and abnormal events for monthly rainfall have been worked out using monthly rainfall data for 42 years (1970-2011), covering 27 rain gauge stations in the state of Haryana. Analysis indicated that drought months are more probable than normal months while normal months are more probable than abnormal months.  The monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change in rainfall over time have been examined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, the significant decrease in annual rainfall was noticed at Ballabgarh and Thanesar, While in monsoon rainfall, a significant decrease was noticed at Thanesar and Narnaul. But Sirsa is the only district which shows a significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. In probability analysis the highest per cent of normal, draughts and abnormal months was observed for Ambala, Hassanpur and Dujana respectively.

    REFERENCES

    1. Hooda B.K. (2006) Probability analysis of monthly rainfall for agriculture planning at Hisar. Indian Jour Soil Cons. 34(1): 12-14.
    2. Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin London. UK.
    3. Mann, H.B. (1945) Non-parametric test against trend. Econometric. 13:245–259.
    4. Parsad, S., Sinha, A.K. and Kumar, M. (2012) Probability analysis of monthly and seasonal rainfall for Budaun district of Uttar Pradesh. Environment & Ecology. 30(1): 11-14.
    5. Pradeep, C.M., Yasmin and Bhakar, S.R. (2011) Probability analysis of monthly and seasonal rainfall at Solapur, Maharashtra. Internat Jour Agric Engg. 4(2): 160-164.
    6. Ramachandran, G. and Banerjee, A.K. (1983) The sub-    divisional rainfall distribution across the western ghats during the southwest- monsoon season. Mausum. 34(2): 179-184.
    7. Resource Atlas of Haryana, (2004) The state natural resource data management system (NRDMS) centre of the Haryana state council of science and technology Haryana, Chandigarh.
    8. Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Jour Amer Stat Assoc. 63: 1379–1389.
    9. Sharma, H.C., Chauhan, H.S. and Ram, S. (1979) Probability analysis of rainfall for crop planning. Agricultural Engg. 16(3): 87-94.
    10. Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 55(4): 484-496.
    11. Sahu, R.K. and Khare, D. (2015) Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall trend for 30 districts of a coastal state (Odisha) of India. International Journal of Geology, Earth & Environmental Sciences. 5(1): 40-53.
    12. Singh, B. (2016) Variability and trend analysis of rainfall data of Jhalawar district of Rajasthan, India. Journal of Applied and Natural Science. 8(1):116-121
    13. Kumar Neeraj, Panchal C. C., Chandrawanshi S. K. and Thanki J. D. (2016) Analysis of rainfall by using Mann-kendall trend, Sen’s slope and variability at five districts of south Gujarat,India. Mausam, 68(2): 205-22. 
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